Evolution in International Relations

A proper understanding of the relationships that exists between various schools of thought in the field of international relations must be prefaced by a discussion of the concepts of cycles and cyclical behavior. The recognition of cyclical behavior and its importance inspired humankind to develop various world views as a means of explaining significance and meaning of the patterns discerned. Both occidental and oriental writings recognize and affirm the importance of cycles, comparing the first eight verses of the third chapter of the Book of Ecclesiastes against the forty-second chapter of the Tao Te Ching demonstrates the point.


Ecclesiastes 3:1-8
1
There is an appointed time for everything,
and a time for every affair under the heavens.
2
A time to give birth, and a time to die;
a time to plant, and a time to uproot the plant.
3
A time to kill, and a time to heal;
a time to tear down, and a time to build.
4
A time to weep, and a time to laugh;
a time to mourn, and a time to dance.
5
A time to scatter stones, and a time to gather them;
a time to embrace, and a time to be far from embraces.
6
A time to seek, and a time to lose;
a time to keep, and a time to cast away.
7
A time to rend, and a time to sew;
a time to be silent, and a time to speak.
8
A time to love, and a time to hate;
a time of war, and a time of peace. (Book of Ecclesiastes, 2011, 3:1-8)

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Tao Te Ching Chapter 42

The Tao begot one. One begot two. Two begot three. And three begot the ten thousand things.

The ten thousand things carry yin and embrace yang.

They achieve harmony by combining these forces.

People hate to be “orphaned,” “widowed,” or “worthless,”

But this is how the wise describe themselves.

For one gains by losing
And loses by gaining. (Tao Te Ching, 2011, p. 45)


What are cycles? Merriam-Webster’s Dictionary defined the term cycles in part; as both measures of time, or as a series of occurrences that are repeated over time. Derived from the ancient Greek word “kyklos” and the subsequent Latin word “cyclus” that can mean either a circle or wheel. Cycles can be either short or long. Regardless of the length all cycles share common characteristics in the sense that all cycles are both balanced and circular in nature.

Grandmaster Hwang Kee, the founder of Soo Bahk Do Moo Duk Kwan school of martial arts averred in the Moo Do Chul Hahk published posthumously, that the active and passive elements of all cycles recognized and affirmed by occidental and oriental traditions alike are balanced by the presence of a neutral element. The purpose of this neutral force is to regulate the cyclical processes and through its moderating influence inspire the unity between the active and passive elements necessary to give substance and form to the material world id: (Hwang, 2009, pp. 124-127). Cycles and cyclical behavior govern the natural and social sciences alike.

Published in 1987 George Modelski’s seminal work entitled Long Cycles in World Politics argued that, international relations and the appurtenant fields international economics, international law, and international polity, develop and evolve in accordance with an inherent and preëxisting pattern of repetitive cycles that continually recur. The evidence for the progression of a given cycle can be verified through a careful study of the waves of development known as Kondratiev waves present within each long cycle.

Long cycles offer a new perspective on world politics. They permit the careful exploration of the ways in which world wars have recurred, and lead states such as Britain and the United States have succeeded each other in an orderly manner. They draw attention to the fact that the great wars and leading powers were also linked to waves of major innovations, such as the age of discoveries or the industrial revolution, that have made the modern world what it is. They help cultivate a long-term outlook on international affairs. Students of long cycles believe that major wars and leadership relate to each other in repeating patterns, and that these patterns in turn, link up to major trends of global development, (Modelski, 1987, p. 1).

Modelski’s work on long cycles implicitly affirmed the position adopted by Nathan Roscoe Pound in the 1954 revision of his 1921 classic entitled, An Introduction to the Philosophy of Law. In his tome Pound implied that both municipal and international law are organic in the sense that they undergo periodic cycles of evolution interposed with periods of stasis dividing each cycle. The frequency and degree of the evolutionary cycles and their complimentary periods of stability are not completely uniform and vary between different areas of law with some changing more frequently than others id: (Pound, 1982, pp. 1-24)

The desire to explain the cyclical patterns described within the fields of international relations, economics, law, and polity led to the development of the two primary schools of thought international realism and international liberalism, although, these streams of thought exhibit some opposition to the other; neither school, nor their progeny would exist and function in the absence of the other. They are constrained and balanced because, neither theory alone is sufficient to completely account for the repetition of patterns witnessed from one cycle to the next. Furthermore, the balance between the theories is enhanced because both acknowledge the importance of the state within the international sphere.


In the fifth edition of Contending Theories of International Relations: A Comprehensive Survey published in 2001 James E. Dougherty and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr., asserted that the development of international relations as it exists today was engendered by the death agonies of the post Napoleonic Concert of Europe system, culminating in the cataclysmic of the First World War (Dougherty & Pfaltzgraff, Jr., 2001, pp. 64-67).

It could reasonably be argued that the twentieth century witnessed the end of a cycle that began with the Revolutions of 1848-49 and ended with the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914. The ensuing First World War marked a transitional period between the end of the previous long cycle and the beginning of the next long cycle that began at the Peace Conference held in Paris during the Spring of 1919. (Dougherty & Pfaltzgraff, Jr., 2001) assert that the modern incarnations of the classical idealist/liberal theory, and classical realist theory date to this period, (Dougherty & Pfaltzgraff, Jr., 2001, pp. 66-69). The long cycle begun in 1919 finished in 1992 following the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. The cycle possessed two distinct phases; the first phase began in 1919 at the Palace of Versailles and ended in January of 1946 with the convening of the United Nations in Central Hall Westminster, London. The first phase of the long cycle consisted of two subdivisions. During the first half of the cycle’s first phase American and European scholars that ascribed to an idealistic worldview including Elihu Root, Woodrow Wilson, Lassa Francis Lawrence Oppenheim, John Dewey, Dionisio Anzilotti and Jan Christiaan Smuts dominated the discourse. These scholars advocated for the creation of the League of Nations, the Permanent Court of International Justice and the International Labour Commission. Pitman B. Potter highlighted the need for the League of Nations in his 1948 volume entitled An Introduction to the Study of International Organization, Potter emphasized that the formulation of the League of Nations in 1919 its dissolution 1946 and the creation of the United Nations during the same period were the direct result of the upheavals caused by the small scale wars at the time of the two Hague Peace Conferences between 1899 and 1907; and the two global wars between 1914 and 1945.

Finally the cumulative revolutions of 1900, 1920, and 1940 (roughly) must be registered. The events of the end of the nineteenth century and the early years of the present century did not, in content, really exceed greatly what had been accomplished in the preceding generation, but the steps now taken are more self-conscious, deliberate, and articulate. The developments of 1875-1900 were obscure, unheralded, and unsung; they were even denied in principle. In 1899, 1900, 1904, and 1907 international organization was put forward in so many words as a desirable thing. Then came a relapse which lasted for ten years or more when again a revolution had to be staged in favor of a League of Nations and all the accompanying developments ( 1918-1928). The peak of this development came just before the economic collapse of 1929; perhaps we should say that this collapse brought that movement to an end. At all events there was another reaction and only in 1942 could the forward movement be taken up again. The volume and force of the present movement seem to dwarf anything that has gone before but we should be sufficiently chastened by this historical review to approach present developments with suitable humility. It is true that the long history of international organization made the creation of the League of Nations in 1919-1920 appear not surprising but surprisingly late. It is true that after the events of 1936-1941 the recreation of the League under another name seems to have been inevitable and wholly in accord with international needs. Nevertheless nothing is certain--in matters of detail at least-- in this field and all further action will still be an historical experiment (Potter, 1948, pp. 238-239)


The failure of the League of Nations reflected the limitations of the idealist school to address international issues effectively, and ultimately required that the leadership within the idealist/liberal school pass from the Wilsonian idealists to the classical liberals including Franklin Roosevelt, Winston Churchill, José Gustavo Guerrero, and Manley Ottmer Hudson, Sr. David Fromkin in his 1994 article entitled “What is Wilsonianism?” argued that President Franklin Delano Roosevelt sought to divorce himself and his administration’s approach to international affairs from the idealistic theories advanced by his political mentor Woodrow Wilson, in whose administration he had served as Assistant Secretary of the Navy. The exigencies of the Great Depression and onset of the Second World War required that President Roosevelt temper any preëxisting liberal tendencies with a realistic form of restraint similar to that espoused by his close relative and the former Republican president Theodore Roosevelt, (Fromkin, 1994, p. 102). This moderation by President Roosevelt gave rise to the classical liberal theory founded on three principles.

1. The traditional view that equilibrium among nation-states can only be maintained through a “balance of power” equation is flawed because, there is no such thing as balance at the international level because the distribution of power is always in a state of flux. Furthermore, the idea that the maintenance of national sovereignty, and security of the nation-state from external threats are the only factors that influence and affect balance of power equations, ignores the effect that social unrest or economic issues domestically can have on the ability of the state to engage within the international sphere, and thereby limits the power and influence of a nation state, (Potter, 1948, pp. 169-176)

2. The constantly shifting landscape on the international level requires the presence of international organizations, regional organizations, intergovernmental organizations, znc non-governmental organizations. These organizations can serve as forums in which states can express their views, advance their preferred policies, and which can be utilized to conduct indirect diplomacy between states that do not have diplomatic ties as in the case of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic
of China (ROC), id: (Dutton, 2011), and (Chi, 2009)

3. It is possible to lessen the degree of anarchy naturally found within the international arena through the development of and implementation of multilateral instruments that emphasize and enhance international coöperation, id: (Lewis, 2014), (Brownlie, 2009), (Jessup, 1949) and (Goodrich, 1945).

The transfer of leadership within the idealist/liberal school coincided with the deterioration of the political situation in Europe and the Far East beginning in 1931 with Mukden Incident and accelerating with the rise of National Socialism in Germany and Fascist governments in Bulgaria, Italy, Japan, Romania, and Spain from 1931 to 1936. The inability of liberally minded diplomats and politicians to ameliorate the instability caused by the aggressive conduct of the Tripartite Axis, and to check the aggression of the Axis powers signaled the beginning of a succession process, in which, the idealist/liberal school gradually yielded their dominant position to the realist school of thought led by Edward Hallett Carr and his disciple Hans Joachim Morgenthau. During this transitory period, the liberal politicians retained sufficient strength to effect the replacement of the discredited League of Nations and the Permanent Court of International Justice in 1945-1946 with the newly created United Nations and the International Court of Justice. In his critique of idealist/liberal theory contained in The Twenty Years' Crisis 1919-1939: An Introduction to the Study of International Relations, Carr argued that the idealist/liberal theory is based upon a flawed foundation because, in his view the idealists/liberals sought to establish their theoretical principles as norms against which all diplomatic practice would be judged rather than viewing theoretical constructs as a products established practices, see: (Carr, 2001, p. 12).

In his volume Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, Hans Joachim Morgenthau provided the clearest articulation of the realistic worldview that became the dominant and prevailing theory by the time of the Battle of Osan-si signaled the beginning of the Korean War in July of 1950. In his seminal volume Morgenthau advanced six principles that he asserted underpinned the realist worldview. First, he argued the realism must be governed by objective laws founded on human nature, in contrast to the liberal point of view that is based upon aspirations, (Morgenthau, 1963, pp. 4-5). Second, international politics is defined in accordance with and inextricably linked to the interests of the nation-state. As a corollary to this realistic theorists like Carr and Morgenthau held that the state interest revolves around the acquisition and maintenance of various forms of power by the state, (Morgenthau, 1963, pp. 5-8). Third, the definition of state interest and the definition of power that serves as the basis for the state interest are mutable, meaning that they can be altered when a situation demands their alteration, (Morgenthau, 1963, pp. 8-10). Fourth, the international sphere is in a state of perpetual conflict, because, every act of a nation-state inspires a degree of conflict (Morgenthau, 1963, pp. 10-11). Fifth, the proper governance of the state requires moderation restraint and above all else impartiality to avoid harm to the state or its interests (Morgenthau, 1963, p. 11). Lastly, the political sphere must always remain separate and distinct from any other realm to preserve the validity of the theory (Morgenthau, 1963, p. 11).

The limitations of classical realism became apparent in the failure of the realist school to effectively mitigate or address the debacle in Indochina that resulted in the Vietnam War and the eventual defeat and withdrawal of U.S. personnel in 1975. The evacuation of the U.S, embassy in Saigon heralded the beginning of the end of the long cycle that had started in 1919. The process of concluding the cycle continued through the 1980’s and accelerated following the summit between President Reagan and General Secretary Gorbachev in Reykjavik, Iceland in 1986. The cycle begun in 1919 at Versailles ended with the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on December 31, 1991, and the de facto end of the forty-six year Cold War.

During this period dissension and discontent manifested itself in both the realist school and the liberal school. In the realist camp a group of concerned academics led by Kenneth Waltz called for a return to the rigorous standards that had been discarded during the Vietnam Era, and for a wholesale review and revision of the terminology employed by realists. These arguments only served as the preface to the substance of the arguments that Kenneth Waltz presented in his volume entitled Theory of International Politics in which he argued that acquisition and maintenance of power was not the ultimate end of politics. Conversely, they argued that power developed as a byproduct of the efforts of the state to maintain its nationhood. Moreover, Waltz and other neo-realists asserted that politics and not power provided the basis for explaining the conduct of the nation-state both internationally and municipally. Classical liberal theorists also faced a challenge during the 1980’s from neo-liberals Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye who argued that classical liberal theory did not sufficiently account for the increasing levels of interdependence among states, the consequent development of globalism and their effect on the power of the state that they chronicled in Power and Interdependence: World Politics in Transition.

In two decades since the dissolution of the Soviet Union a new long cycle has begun in, which, the neorealist school founded by Kenneth Waltz and the neoliberal school established through efforts of Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye are the dominant theories. In this cycle they will fulfill the role played by the idealist/liberal and realist schools in the previous cycle, it is too early to judge whether either school has been outpaced such a determination takes on average about forty to fifty years the same length of time as a K- Wave. It is premature to say whether or not the neoclassical liberal school or the neoclassical realist schools at this point in time will supplant the neoliberal or neorealist paradigms

Works Cited

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